The Most Impressive Housing Bubbles Across America: Price Dips and Rises in 33 Major, High-Priced MSAs (November 2025)
Every housing market moves to its own rhythm.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
In some locales, mid-tier single-family homes, condominiums, and co-ops have fallen sharply from their 2022–2024 peaks. In others, prices have continued to climb, albeit at a much slower pace than in the previous boom years. Here, we monitor 33 large, pricey Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), which are urban regions defined by the Census and often include several cities.
November prices were down year-over-year in 22 of the 33 MSAs we track, up from 6 at the end of 2024. The steepest declines were in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX (-23.6%), San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA (-10.5%), and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ (-10.4%).
Nine MSAs posted year-over-year price highs in November. The strongest year-over-year gains among them occurred in Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI (+4.1%), Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN (+3.7%), and New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ (+3.0%).
To qualify for the 33 “most splendid housing bubbles,” an MSA had to be among the largest by population and have reached at least $300,000 in home prices at some point. Some large markets never reached that threshold, so they don’t appear here despite rapid price moves, such as New Orleans, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.
Across the 33 MSAs, 23 saw prices retreat from their recent highs in prior years.
Among those 23 MSAs, 17 hit their peaks in 2022, while Atlanta peaked in 2023 and Miami, San Diego, Charlotte, San Jose, and Los Angeles peaked in 2024.
Here are the notable declines from prior-peak levels through November 2025:
1) Austin, TX: -23.6%
2) San Francisco: -10.5%
3) Phoenix: -10.4%
4) San Antonio: -8.7%
5) Tampa: -7.7%
6) Sacramento: -7.3%
7) Denver: -7.1%
8) Dallas: -6.8%
9) Orlando: -5.0%
10) Miami: -5.0% (2024 peak)
11) Portland: -4.7%
12) Honolulu: -4.6%
13) San Jose: -3.9% (2024 peak)
14) Raleigh: -3.9%
15) Seattle: -3.4%
16) Atlanta: -3.4% (2023 peak)
17) Houston: -3.2%
18) Las Vegas: -3.0%
19) San Diego: -2.7% (2024 peak)
20) Salt Lake City: -2.1%
21) Los Angeles: -1.8% (2024 peak)
22) Nashville: -1.7%
23) Charlotte: -0.9% (2024 peak)
Nine MSAs achieved new price highs in November (year-over-year):
1) Milwaukee: +4.1%
2) Chicago: +3.7%
3) New York City: +3.0%
4) Philadelphia: +2.9%
5) Kansas City: +2.7%
6) Minneapolis: +2.0%
7) Boston: +1.5%
8) Columbus, OH: +1.5%
9) Baltimore: +1.4%
Prices fell year-over-year in 22 MSAs, including:
Tampa, FL: -6.0%
Austin, TX: -6.0%
Miami, FL: -4.7%
Orlando, FL: -4.4%
Dallas, TX: -4.0%
Phoenix, AZ: -3.4%
San Francisco, CA: -3.2%
Denver, CO: -3.0%
San Antonio, TX: -2.9%
Atlanta, GA: -2.9%
San Diego, CA: -2.5%
Raleigh, NC: -2.5%
Sacramento, CA: -2.3%
Houston, TX: -2.1%
San Jose, CA: -1.9%
Las Vegas, NV: -1.6%
Honolulu, HI: -1.3%
Los Angeles, CA: -1.3%
Portland, OR: -1.1%
Seattle, WA: -1.1%
Charlotte, NC: -0.7%
Nashville, TN: -0.1%
Methodology: The pricing data for the 33 MSAs come from the seasonally adjusted three-month-average mid-tier Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The ZHVI aggregates millions of data points from Zillow’s Database of All Homes, incorporating public records (tax data), MLS and brokerages, local Realtor associations, real estate agents, and household-level information. It covers off-market and for-sale-by-owner transactions and includes sales-pairs data.
The 33 MSAs listed here are among the largest by population and have at least one point in time where prices reached or exceeded $300,000. Some large markets are omitted because they never reached that threshold, even amid strong recent price surges.
Detailed notes for select MSAs show how far each has fallen or risen from its peak, along with the timing of those peaks (some peaks occurred in 2022, 2023, or 2024, while others occurred as late as 2024). For example, the San Francisco Bay Area’s measure includes San Francisco and most East Bay counties but excludes the San Jose metro, which will be addressed separately below.
And in case you missed it:
- Mortgage rates aren’t inherently unbearable. The real issue is home prices that jumped 40–70% over two years, fueling affordability tensions.
- The typical age of first-time homebuyers has been cited as 40 in 2025, up from 33 in 2021. Is that figure accurate? Some question the source or interpretation.
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Additional WOLF STREET features and related resources:
- Daily Market Insights by Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Officer at TheTechnicalTraders.com.
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