Hold on to your hats, hockey fans! Is Connor McDavid officially eclipsing Sidney Crosby's reign as the king of consistent performance? Fifteen years ago, Crosby etched his name in history with an unbelievable 25-game point streak, racking up 25 goals and 50 points. Many considered it the pinnacle of the salary cap era. Now, Connor McDavid is not just knocking on that door – he might be kicking it down. McDavid, who recently joined an elite group of only four players in the salary cap era to achieve a 20-game point streak, is giving Crosby a serious run for his money. Buckle up, because we're diving into the stats to see just how these two incredible streaks stack up.
Since December 4th, McDavid has been playing with a fire that's hard to ignore. Remember those whispers questioning McDavid's claim to the 'best player in the world' title, especially with Nathan MacKinnon's stellar season? Well, McDavid has silenced those doubts with a resounding "Not so fast!"
Over his current 20-game tear, McDavid has lit the lamp 19 times and piled up an astounding 46 points. That's the most productive 20-game stretch of his entire career, surpassing his previous best of 44 points. To put that into perspective, that's a mind-boggling 189-point pace over a full season – numbers that would make even Wayne Gretzky blush.
But here's where it gets controversial... McDavid's impact stretches far beyond just goals and assists. His expected goals rate sits at an impressive 65%, meaning his team is significantly more likely to score when he's on the ice. He's personally generated 17.6 expected goals from a whopping 102 shots, boasts a plus-11 penalty differential (drawing more penalties than he takes), and his line is outscoring opponents 22-14. His power play contributions are equally staggering, averaging 17.6 goals per 60 minutes. Essentially, everything McDavid's achieved has been earned, and some might even argue he's been unlucky at five-on-five, with an actual goals-per-60 rate (4.05) slightly lower than his expected goals-per-60 (4.99). In short, McDavid has been absolutely dominant.
So, how does this compare to Crosby's legendary streak? Crosby excelled at five-on-five, outscoring opponents 30-11. However, his expected goals rate was lower at 55%, he didn't generate as many scoring chances (11 expected goals), his penalty differential was a smaller plus-four, and his power play production was less potent (8.9 goals per 60). Based on these metrics, the edge goes to McDavid.
And this is the part most people miss... It's crucial to consider the difference in scoring environments. To truly compare, we need to examine how McDavid and Crosby performed relative to their peers during their respective streaks.
During his 20-game run, McDavid has a Net Rating per 82 of plus-52. That's not a typo! The next closest player, Nikita Kucherov (who's been on a tear himself), is at plus-41. The average Net Rating of the other top 10 forwards is plus-29. This means McDavid is performing 27% better than the second-best player and a staggering 79% better than the average of the top 10. By comparison, Crosby was 32% better than the second-best player during his streak, but only 50% better than the top 10 average.
While Crosby didn't face a direct challenger like McDavid does with Kucherov and MacKinnon, giving him a bigger gap over the second best player, McDavid's advantage over the entire field is significantly wider.
Crosby's 25-game point streak has long been viewed as the gold standard for consistent excellence in the salary cap era. But McDavid's current performance is strongly challenging that perception. The only remaining difference is the length of the streak. If McDavid can extend his streak just five more games to match Crosby's, he'll leave very little room for doubt.
McDavid's career has been punctuated by numerous exceptional stretches. But this latest run might represent him at his absolute peak. We are witnessing history in the making – a sentiment that's become almost commonplace when discussing McDavid.
16 Stats to Keep You in the Know:
Edmonton Looks Ready to Go on a Run: The Oilers' recent record (5-3-2) might not fully reflect their underlying performance. They boast a league-second-best 58% expected goals rate, indicating they're controlling play effectively. With Tristan Jarry and Jake Walman back in the lineup, the Oilers are finally hitting their stride.
The Return of Copp: Andrew Copp narrowly missed being a top 10 forward. After a slow start (7 points in 27 games), he's exploded with 19 points in his last 21 games and a 59% expected goals rate. His chemistry with linemates Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat is giving Detroit much-needed depth.
The Lightning are the Class of the East: Despite a rocky start (1-4-2), Tampa Bay has surged to a 28-9-1 record since, fueled by Kucherov's incredible 49 points in his last 24 games. Their 11-game winning streak highlights their dominance. Remarkably, they've achieved this without their top defensive pairing for much of the season, making a fully healthy Lightning team a terrifying prospect. They're now neck-and-neck with Colorado for Stanley Cup favorites.
Pricing Raddysh's Next Contract: Lightning GM Julien BriseBois's candid remarks about Darren Raddysh's extension talks highlight the challenge of valuing his performance. Raddysh has played like a top-pairing defenseman in Hedman's absence, but his sudden emergence at age 30 makes projecting his future value incredibly difficult. His current market value on a five-year deal could be as high as $9.2 million based on this season's play, or as low as $4.6 million based on previous performance.
Toronto's Power Play Since Firing Savard: The Maple Leafs' decision to fire assistant coach Marc Savard after a dismal power play start has paid immediate dividends. Since his dismissal, their power play has jumped from 30th to 8th in the league, scoring 10.5 goals per 60 minutes, a significant improvement that could salvage their season.
Can Montreal's Secondary Sizzle Add More Substance?: Montreal's second line, featuring Juraj Slafkovsky, Ivan Demidov, and Oliver Kapanen, has been on fire, providing crucial offensive support behind Nick Suzuki's line. However, their high on-ice shooting percentage (18.1%) suggests some regression may be coming. To sustain their success, they need to control the puck more consistently and generate more scoring chances.
The Atlantic vs. Everyone: The Atlantic Division is a powerhouse, as evidenced by their dominant record (148-90-23) against the rest of the league. Only Buffalo and Ottawa are not playing above a 100-point pace against non-Atlantic opponents.
Hamilton is Not the Problem in New Jersey: Despite being a healthy scratch recently, Dougie Hamilton is not the source of the Devils' struggles. While his scoring is down, his underlying metrics suggest bad luck, and he's been one of their best defensive defenders while facing the toughest minutes. His strong performance in his return to the lineup reinforces his value. Is benching him the right call?
New Jersey's Offensive Stars Need to Step Up: More is expected from Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier. Both are on pace for their lowest point totals in years, raising questions about their individual performance and the coaching staff's ability to maximize their potential.
Ehlers is Getting Back on Track: After a slow start, Nikolaj Ehlers is showing signs of his old self, with improved production, expected goals rate, and Game Score since the holiday break.
Is it Time for Marino to Take on Matchups for Utah?: Mikhail Sergachev is tasked with taking on tough minutes. But the data suggests that he isn't handling it well. Perhaps it is time to lessen Sergachev's burden and give it to John Marino and Nate Schmidt.
Hughes Continues to Thrive in a Challenging Role: Quinn Hughes is excelling in a matchup role alongside Brock Faber, leading to significant improvements in the team's top pairing's expected goals and actual goals percentages.
California Special Teams Trending in Opposite Directions: The Sharks boast the league's best power play in terms of scoring chances, while the Kings have the worst penalty kill in terms of chances allowed.
Brandt Clarke: Power-Play Quarterback: Brandt Clarke's promotion to the Kings' top power-play unit has revitalized their man advantage, leading to a significant increase in goals and expected goals. His playmaking ability has been a game-changer.
Confounding Kraken: Seattle's recent 9-1-2 run is perplexing, as their strong results on special teams and five-on-five contrast sharply with their poor underlying metrics. Their positive goal differential and negative expected goal differential suggest their success may not be sustainable.
Revisiting Rob Zamuner Making Team Canada: A look back at Rob Zamuner's controversial selection to the 1998 Olympic team highlights how far hockey analytics and player evaluation have come. Based on modern metrics, Zamuner's performance that season would place him firmly in fourth-line territory, equivalent to a current-day selection of Scott Laughton or Adam Henrique. Does this retrospective change your opinion on the team selection?
So, there you have it. McDavid's dominance is undeniable, and the stats certainly paint a compelling picture. But does his incredible run truly surpass Crosby's legendary streak? What do you think? Is McDavid the new king of consistent performance, or does Crosby's legacy still reign supreme? Let your voice be heard in the comments below!
